The island nations of the Caribbean are among Earth’s most vulnerable
countries to global change. While their populations are projected
to increase significantly over the next 100 years, the fresh water and
coastal resources on which they depend are projected to decline.
Presently, the countries of Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, and
Jamaica have per capita available fresh water ranging from 1400 to 3000
m3/yr, but IPCC projections call for a reduction in precipitation over
the region of as much as 20% during the next 50-100 years. This
coupled with increasing population and associated water demands may
cause severe freshwater stress. The coastal ecosystems of these
countries hold their real treasures in living resources and
tourist dollars. But according to the United Nations
Caribbean Environment Programme, coastal resources across these islands are severely
threatened by over exploitation and, perhaps more
importantly, by inland sources of pollution. The fate of these
coastal resources over the next 50-100 years is thus highly uncertain
and potentially bleak.
If the island nations of the Caribbean are to successfully respond to
the multifaceted threats that the next 50-100 years will bring,
immediate action is required. Moreover, action must be
multinational and highly coordinated as the socioeconomic condition of
each country is tied the condition of its neighbours, and the coastal
ecosystems of each island are physically linked by the flow of coastal
currents. Caribbean Coastal Scenarios is a regional research initiative to apply
our best scientific knowledge to modelling and evaluating possible
futures in the Greater Antilles. By partnering universities, national and
regional governmental and non-governmental organizations, and
international science and development organizations we are developing research activities that respond to
the immediate needs of decision makers.
Our primary science objectives are to:
- Develop island-scale quantitative models to simulate seasonal and
inter-annual fluxes of fresh water, sediments, and dissolved loads to
coastal zones as a function of climate, catchment characteristics, and
socioeconomic variables.
- Examine specific and realistic scenarios of future change in
driving variables, evaluating the risks to coastal ecosystems and
vulnerabilities of humans to projected changes.
- Quantify impacts along coastlines using ecological economic
indicators and explore sustainable and desirable scenarios for the
future.
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